European Performance Spots (EPS)
Updated calculation after GS: Down to a three-horse race for the two EPS?
The revised access lists for the European cups have recently been ratified and published. One of the main changes is that two of the four additional spots in Champions League shall be awarded the two best leagues in the previous season. The term is European Performance Spots (EPS).
The EPS are the two upper nations on the one-year list of the UEFA Country Coefficients 2023/2024.
Basis principles: Each of the teams from the national leagues earn point for results (1 for draw and 2 for win) and there is a system for bonus points when teams reach the next level. All points for the teams from each league are aggregated and divided by the number of participating teams.
Evaluation model
After completion of the qualification and before start of the group stage, we prepared a calculation involving the seven strongest leagues. The purpose was to predict who would earn the two extra spots in the season thereafter.
The evaluation model calculated the following two values:
- The maximum achievable number for each of the seven leagues
- The predicted number for each team and each league
The maximum number can easily be calculated: A team participating in CL, EL and ECL can maximum achieve 38, 34 and 30 points respectively. However, if a league is represented with multiple teams in one competition, then the cannot all win it. Hence, corrections must be made.
Also, we have used a simulation model to simulate the expected number of points. This simulation is based on entry point (i.e. here competition) and each teams club ranking. Already earned points during the qualification are added.
During the group stage, actually earned points will be compared with the estimated numbers. New simulation may be made after the group stage.
Current status after first round in group stage
The current status is presented above. Major observations are:
- If ranked by the still maximum achievable number of points (earned + possible), then Germany and Italy are currently best
- If ranked only by the already earned point, then Netherlands and Germany are in the front seat
- If ranked by the expected value, then Germany and Spain have the highest values.
Many have expected this to be a walk in the park for the English, but it will not. The eight teams representing the PL have not performed very well in the first round of the group stage, booking only 9 of the possible 16 point.
EPS will be dire straits for the Premier League.
