Italy has so far earned 124 points, which give a coefficient of 17.71.
England has earned 130 points, but considering 8 teams this gives a coefficient of 16.25 so far. Germany is at current stage in front of England with 16,36.
Each of the 24 remaining teams has a potential of earning another 12 points for their country and 19 of them are representing the five federations with a possibility of qualifying for an EPS.
Most of the five federations have more than one club in one competition and this reduces the number of potential points in the remaining stages.
Further, Italy has one internal match which guarantees minimum 18.43 points. This is more than Spain can potentially earn considering that all their three remaining representatives are competing for the same points down the road in Champions League. Their maximum potential is 17.81 points.
We have prepared a simulation model whereby the relative strength is derived from the ‘Opta Power Rankings’.
According to the simulation model, Spain and England are likely to score the highest fraction of the remaining potential of points, 46 and 44 percent respectively.
Italy will most likely take on EPS (98% probability) followed by England (64%), Germany (34%) and France (4%). Spain has only theoretical chances (<0.1%).
Therefor the expected coefficient at the end of the campaign is as follows:
- Italy: 20,0
- England: 18,7
- Germany: 18,1
- France: 16,8
- Spain: 15,9
